Toronto Maple Leafs 2025-26 Season Preview: Playoff Chances, Projected Points, Roster Rankings
As the chill of autumn settles over Scotiabank Arena, Toronto Maple Leafs fans are left pondering a familiar yet freshly painful question: Can this team finally conquer the playoffs? Entering the 2025-26 NHL season, the Maple Leafs are a squad in transition, grappling with the seismic departure of franchise cornerstone Mitch Marner and the weight of a decade-long playoff curse. Year 10 of the Auston Matthews era arrives not with unbridled optimism but with a sobering realism. The regular season has been a playground for Toronto’s offensive fireworks, but the postseason remains an uncharted nightmare. With a revamped roster blending elite scoring with newfound grit, the Leafs face their sternest test yet: translating talent into triumph. This preview dissects their playoff odds, point projections, and a deep dive into roster rankings, all while eyeing whether this iteration can break the cycle.
The summer of 2025 will forever be etched in Leafs lore as “The Trade.” Mitch Marner, the puck-moving wizard who amassed 102 points last season and 594 in his Toronto tenure, was shipped to the Vegas Golden Knights in a sign-and-trade that netted Toronto forwards Nicolas Roy and Matias Maccelli, plus defenseman Henry Thrun from the San Jose Sharks. It was a move born of frustration—Marner’s defensive lapses in clutch moments and a contract impasse that GM Brad Treliving deemed untenable. “Mitch gave us everything for nine years,” Treliving said at the presser. “But sometimes, evolution demands subtraction.”
The trade’s ripple effects are profound. Gone is the silky playmaker who elevated Toronto’s power play to 25.4% efficiency last year. In his place, Maccelli—a 24-year-old Finnish wizard with 39 points in 66 games for Arizona last season—slots in as a cerebral setup man. Roy, a gritty two-way center with 40 points and a plus-15 rating in Vegas, adds the bottom-six backbone Toronto desperately needed. Thrun, a mobile puck-mover, bolsters a defense that ranked 18th in goals against per game (2.89) in 2024-25. Yet, the net loss in star power is undeniable. Analytics from Evolving Hockey show Toronto’s top-four forward Net Rating dropping from plus-72 to plus-57, still elite (third in the NHL behind Edmonton and Tampa Bay) but a step back from contender status.
Under new coach Craig Berube—hired after Sheldon Keefe’s postseason implosion—the emphasis shifts to “grit and structure.” Berube, who orchestrated St. Louis’ 2019 Cup run, preaches a forechecking swarm that ranked Toronto seventh in high-danger chances created during preseason. Additions like free-agent winger Dakota Joshua (a physical force with 32 points in Vancouver) and prospect Easton Cowan (OHL playoff MVP with 39 points in 17 games) inject youth and snarl. But depth remains a specter: the bottom six, once a revolving door of underperformers, now features Calle Järnkrok’s resurgence and David Kampf’s penalty-kill reliability, yet lacks proven scoring punch beyond the top line.
Toronto’s 23-man opening roster blends continuity with calculated risks. Here’s a positional ranking, graded on a scale of A (elite) to F (disastrous), based on projected 5-on-5 expected goals share (xG%), power-play efficiency, and historical playoff metrics.
The top quartet remains a juggernaut. Auston Matthews (projected 50 goals, 105 points) anchors Line 1 with William Nylander (40 goals, 85 points) and Matthew Knies (25 goals, 55 points), who exploded for 29 goals as a 22-year-old last season. Their combined Net Rating? A blistering plus-57, per The Athletic’s models. Maccelli joins as Marner’s heir apparent, his 0.59 primary assists per 60 minutes mirroring the departed star’s vision. Line 2—John Tavares (30 goals), Roy (20 goals), and Max Domi (40 points)—offers balance, with Roy’s faceoff prowess (54.2% last year) stabilizing shifts.
The bottom six earns its keep through tenacity: Järnkrok and Joshua form a checking duo with 200 combined hits projected, while Pontus Holmberg (now with Tampa) leaves a void filled by Cowan’s camp breakout. Weakness? Scoring droughts; only two lines above 2.8 goals per 60. Prospect Luke Haymes, a dark horse with 25 points in AHL preseason, could snag a call-up. Overall, forwards rank eighth league-wide in xG%, but playoff clutch factor lags (minus-5 goal differential in last three postseasons).
The blue line, Toronto’s perennial Achilles’ heel, gets a mobility upgrade. Morgan Rielly (50 points) and Jake McCabe (plus-20) reprise their shutdown pairing, which limited opponents to 2.1 goals against per 60 last year. Chris Tanev, the grizzled veteran acquired in 2024, pairs with Oliver Ekman-Larsson for veteran savvy, while Thrun slots beside Simon Benoit for puck-rushing flair. Depth pieces like Timothy Liljegren and Conor Timmins provide injury insurance, but the group’s 18th-place ranking in defensive xG% (49.2%) underscores mobility issues exposed by Florida’s forecheck in the 2025 second round. Berube’s system—emphasizing gap control and shot blocks (Toronto led the NHL with 1,200 last season)—could elevate them to top-12, but without a true No. 1 like Cale Makar, they’re matchup-dependent.
This is Toronto’s quiet superpower. Anthony Stolarz, fresh off a .926 save percentage and Vezina buzz, headlines with 30 wins projected. His 2.14 GAA ranked third among starters with 30+ games last year. Joseph Woll, sidelined early by injury but extended through 2028 at $3.67 million AAV, returns as a 1A tandem mate (25 wins). Their duo posted a .915 team save percentage in 2024-25, propping up subpar defensive play. If Stolarz sustains his rebound control (elite per Natural Stat Trick), Toronto’s crease ranks top-five; Woll’s postseason poise (2.45 GAA in 2025 playoffs) hints at Cup-caliber stability.
Training camp battles heat up: Cowan vs. Haymes for the 13th forward spot, and Thrun vs. Liljegren for third-pair duties. Injuries to Topi Rifai (LTIR) thin the prospect pool, ranked 27th by The Athletic.
Domino’s NHL model, factoring roster changes, schedules, and regression, pegs Toronto at 98 points—six fewer than their 2024-25 Atlantic-winning 108. That’s good for a 74% playoff probability (fourth in the East), but a razor-thin 52% shot at a division title behind juggernauts Florida and Tampa. The Athletic concurs: 97 points, with a 68% wild-card lock but only 42% ECF odds. Why the dip? Marner’s absence costs 0.8 goals per game, per projections, and a brutal October schedule (eight road games in 14) looms.
Optimists point to addition by subtraction: Marner’s minus-3 playoff rating dragged in high-leverage moments. Berube’s Blues went 4-0 in the 2019 Final after similar grit infusions. Pessimists cite the core’s age—Matthews turns 29, Tavares 35—and a prospect pipeline thinner than a Tim Hortons napkin. In ESPN’s bold predictions, Toronto ekes 101 points but flames out in Round 2 again. Daily Faceoff ranks them sixth overall, crediting Stolarz’s netminding for a first-round bye.
The 2025-26 Maple Leafs are a B-grade contender: offensively electric, defensively scrappy, and goaltending-dependable, but haunted by playoff ghosts. Roster rankings place them seventh in forward talent, 12th on D, and third in net—mid-pack overall, per NHL.com’s 32-in-32. With 98 projected points and 74% playoff odds, Toronto’s ceiling is an ECF berth; the floor, another wild-card heartbreaker. As Berube drills “no grit, no glory,” the onus falls on Matthews to will them forward. The Cup window? Cracking, not shattered. For a fanbase starved since 1967, this season isn’t just hockey—it’s redemption. Or reckoning.
