Tennessee Football Questioned: ESPN’s FPI Calls Vols ‘Overvalued’ in 2025 Projections

As summer heats up and preseason college football conversations begin to stir, the University of Tennessee finds itself at the center of a contentious national debate—thanks to ESPN’s latest Football Power Index (FPI) rankings for the upcoming 2025 season. The Volunteers, one of the more storied programs in the SEC, have drawn criticism from ESPN analysts, who argue that Tennessee’s projected success might be inflated.

The FPI, a predictive model used by ESPN to forecast team performance based on factors like returning production, past results, strength of schedule, and recruiting rankings, has the Vols placed higher than many expected. While fans in Knoxville are thrilled at the idea of Tennessee being in the national conversation, ESPN’s latest analysis comes with a word of caution: the Volunteers may not be as strong as the numbers suggest.

Tennessee is projected inside the top 15 in the 2025 preseason FPI rankings—a placement that, on paper, suggests they are one of the better teams in the nation heading into the year. However, ESPN’s accompanying breakdown casts doubt on the validity of this projection.

According to the analysts, Tennessee’s FPI score is being artificially inflated by a few key factors: an above-average recruiting class, the reputation of head coach Josh Heupel, and a favorable statistical carryover from last season. But when analysts dig deeper into the actual roster makeup, quarterback situation, and strength of schedule, there’s concern the Vols may not live up to the billing.

One of the main uncertainties swirling around Tennessee is the quarterback position. With Joe Milton having exhausted his eligibility and Nico Iamaleava still developing, the Volunteers are entering a pivotal year with uncertainty at the most important position on the field. While Iamaleava was a highly-touted recruit and showed flashes of promise in limited action, he remains largely untested in SEC play.

ESPN’s analysts stressed that while talent is there, production under pressure and experience are lacking. The FPI model, they argue, can sometimes overvalue high-upside players who have yet to prove themselves on a consistent stage.

Quarterback play defines college football success more than ever,” said one panelist. “Tennessee might have the tools, but tools don’t win games—execution does. Until Iamaleava or whoever wins that job proves they can perform week in and week out, we’re hesitant to buy the hype.”

Another key reason behind ESPN’s skepticism lies in Tennessee’s brutal 2025 schedule. The Vols face a daunting SEC slate, including matchups against Alabama, Georgia, and Texas. Add in a tricky non-conference test against NC State early in the season, and it’s easy to see why the Vols’ path is far from smooth.

The FPI’s predictive algorithm accounts for opponent strength, but critics argue that it might not fully reflect the physical toll and pressure of facing multiple elite defenses back-to-back. Tennessee may be better on paper than some SEC foes, but the real challenge is surviving the grind of the schedule.

Tennessee’s recent recruiting classes have certainly impressed on paper. Ranked inside the top 10 nationally, their incoming talent is elite and filled with speed, athleticism, and star power. But ESPN analysts are quick to point out that young players, no matter how talented, typically need time to adjust to the college level.

Several of Tennessee’s highest-rated players are either true freshmen or redshirt freshmen—hardly the kind of veteran presence needed to win tough SEC road games or late-season battles. While the recruiting results bode well for the program’s future, ESPN suggests they might not translate into immediate dominance.

Despite the criticism, Tennessee’s program remains optimistic. Heupel and his staff are preaching patience and internal development. The Vols believe they’re building something sustainable, and a top-15 ranking—no matter how controversial—validates the progress they’ve made since the program’s dark days earlier in the decade.

Still, Heupel is likely aware that expectations can be a double-edged sword. Being labeled as “overvalued” by a national outlet could be used as locker room fuel, but it also places more pressure on a young team to prove the doubters wrong.

Whether ESPN’s FPI projection proves to be accurate or not, one thing is clear: Tennessee will enter the 2025 season with high hopes and a lot to prove. The talent is there. The coaching staff has a vision. But as the Volunteers aim to return to true SEC contention, they’ll have to overcome not just a tough schedule—but also the weight of national skepticism.